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Wednesday, 23 June 2021

1:35 Nottingham Racing Tips (24th June)

NOTTINGHAM 1.35 

A field of 8 but no known front runners amongst them which I hate because it does honestly make things so much harder to analyse, the 3yo bottom weight seems better over a shorter distance but not enough for me to lay it but I will look to lay (Triggered 5/1 + Gowanlad) the former won a slow run affair last time out when it won and may have been flattered by the result and the latter might prefer a slower surface and also has poor trainer/jockey stats, Gilt Edge and Show Me A Sunset also have poor stats but not enough for me to lay them, I will be backing STRONBOWE 9/4 who also won last time out and that was good enough for top rating on this years times and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses but my stake wont be at full strength. 

Stronbowe 9/4 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet: Triggered +1pt, Gowanland +1pt

Total +1pt 

NOTTINGHAM 3.55 

A 13 runner race with 4 known front runners in the field, I have negatives against Harrogate, Haveoneyerself and Bellevarde but not enough to lay any of them as they all have pieces of form that would/could make the them competitive, I will look to lay both (Aleef 13/2 who may need further when racing on good to firm ground plus has poor trainer/jockey stats and Lucky Beggar 15/2 who has poor trainer stats and may also prefer a longer distance) my 2nd top rated is BOUDICA BAY 15/2 who will be trying to stay on at the finish and this race could be run to suit it if the leaders go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but if TRIPLE JAYE 6/1 gets to the front and doesn't get pushed too hard for the lead it could well lead all the way and I will back them both to cover both angles. 

Boudica Bay 15/2 1st +7.5pts 
Triple Jaye 6/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet: Lucky Beggar +1pt

Total +7.5pts

NEWMARKET 5.20 

Only 6 runners but there is a couple of front running types in the race, Michael's Choice could try to lead and is my 2nd top rated on 2021 times so could go well especially with an easy lead but I do have BENEFIT STREET 9/2 rated higher and will be the horse I back but this one’s trainer also so has the tissue forecast favourite Araifjan 7/2 in the race, my selection is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice but the latter is being ridden by Ryan Moore who has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and this one is the other front running type in the race, it would maybe a good idea to have a covering bet on its stablemate. 

Benefit Street 1st 9/2 +4.5pts 

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 8.30 

The main problem again with this race is the lack of known front runners in the field, The Gloaming hasn't any distance form on turf and only a slow time on the AW at Wolverhampton, Get Boosting and Show Me Show Me would both need to improve time wise to win this race, James Watt is my 3rd top rated and Economic Cris is my 2nd top rated and they can both be either held up or track the leaders, my top rated is VENTURA FLAME 11/4 but this one is a hold up type but this race might not be run to suit it if the early pace is on the slow side but as it is a 5 furlong dash then I would expect something to change its usual tactics and go from the front but my stake will be kept on the low side because of the lack of known early pace. 

Ventura Flame 11/4 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAMILTON 9.00 

This race isn't as competitive as it first looks and I expect a lot of them will be big prices but these 3 (*Alsvinder 9/2 + Toolmaker 4/1 + Nodsasgoodasawink 7/1) are all forecast to be a single figure price and i will lay them if they are of any value, I expect the pace could be set by LANGHOLM 9/4 who is my 3rd top rated and if allowed an easy lead could steal the race from the front and I guess that's the reason why it is the favourite, FIRMDECISIONS 20/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and at the price has to be given as an each way punt, with the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim KILCONQUHAR 12/1 moves to top spot and is usually a hold up type and runs on well nearing the finish so another that has to be an each way wager, I will be backing all 3 of them.

*NR 

Kilconquhar 3rd -1pt
Langholm 9/4 4th -1pt 
Firmdecisions 20/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Toolmaker +1pt, Nodsasgoodasawink +1pt

Total on the day +10pts

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