5:20 Hamilton Racing Tips (1st September)

HAMILTON 5.20 

ROSE BANDIT 6/1 has been known to lead but hasn't any form at this distance on good or firmer going, has decent jockey booking but I'm not quite sure what to expect from this horse. 

MEWS HOUSE 7/4 won last time out but all its best form has come over shorter distances so I will hope to lay it but it does have the best trainer/jockey stats so hope that will keep the price down. 

AMAZING ALBA 10/1 is just like the one above in that I don't think it will stay the distance with a fast early and with 2 front runners it should be a decently fast early paced affair so if its a single figure price i would lay it. 

OAKENSHIELD 8/1 is the one that i think will try to lead from the start and if allowed an easy lead it could be hard to catch but has poor 0-10 trainer and 0-12 jockeys stats but could make the frame. 

STRONSAY 5/1 can either track the leaders or run in midfield and then stay on at the finish, time wise it comes out 2nd best on my figures so could make the frame. 

KILCONQUHAR 12/1 comes out top on my figures and its best time was recorded this year over this course and distance but its had 11 runs on grass and not won once but it could break its duck here and at the double figure price has to be backed each way. 

MUTAWAFFER 20/1 has poor recent times while its best from earlier this year it comes out 4th top on my figures but would need to bounce back to form but not for me in this race and I think it will be an outsider. 

MUATADEL 4/1 a stablemate of the horse above and it finished 2nd last time out and sits in 3rd top spot on my figures but the trainer is 0-6 in the last 2 weeks and it may struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early gallop which looks likely in this race so I will look to lay it. 

SUMMARY: None of the runners, apart from Mews House, have good recent trainer and or jockey stats, I will look to lay Mews House and Mutawaaffer as they may not stay the distance if Mutawaffer and or Oakenshiled, set their best time from the front, I will be putting my trust and money on KILCONQUHAR 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated and when on its game likes a fast pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit its racing style.

Kilconquhar 12/1 1st  + 14.4pts

Total on the day 14.4pts

1:35 Nottingham Racing Tips (24th June)

NOTTINGHAM 1.35 

A field of 8 but no known front runners amongst them which I hate because it does honestly make things so much harder to analyse, the 3yo bottom weight seems better over a shorter distance but not enough for me to lay it but I will look to lay (Triggered 5/1 + Gowanlad) the former won a slow run affair last time out when it won and may have been flattered by the result and the latter might prefer a slower surface and also has poor trainer/jockey stats, Gilt Edge and Show Me A Sunset also have poor stats but not enough for me to lay them, I will be backing STRONBOWE 9/4 who also won last time out and that was good enough for top rating on this years times and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses but my stake wont be at full strength. 

Stronbowe 9/4 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet: Triggered +1pt, Gowanland +1pt

Total +1pt 

NOTTINGHAM 3.55 

A 13 runner race with 4 known front runners in the field, I have negatives against Harrogate, Haveoneyerself and Bellevarde but not enough to lay any of them as they all have pieces of form that would/could make the them competitive, I will look to lay both (Aleef 13/2 who may need further when racing on good to firm ground plus has poor trainer/jockey stats and Lucky Beggar 15/2 who has poor trainer stats and may also prefer a longer distance) my 2nd top rated is BOUDICA BAY 15/2 who will be trying to stay on at the finish and this race could be run to suit it if the leaders go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but if TRIPLE JAYE 6/1 gets to the front and doesn't get pushed too hard for the lead it could well lead all the way and I will back them both to cover both angles. 

Boudica Bay 15/2 1st +7.5pts 

Triple Jaye 6/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet: Lucky Beggar +1pt

Total +7.5pts

NEWMARKET 5.20 

Only 6 runners but there is a couple of front running types in the race, Michael's Choice could try to lead and is my 2nd top rated on 2021 times so could go well especially with an easy lead but I do have BENEFIT STREET 9/2 rated higher and will be the horse I back but this one’s trainer also so has the tissue forecast favourite Araifjan 7/2 in the race, my selection is being ridden by a 3lb claiming apprentice but the latter is being ridden by Ryan Moore who has a 29% win ratio on the stables older horses and this one is the other front running type in the race, it would maybe a good idea to have a covering bet on its stablemate. 

Benefit Street 1st 9/2 +4.5pts 

Total +4.5pts

HAMILTON 8.30 

The main problem again with this race is the lack of known front runners in the field, The Gloaming hasn't any distance form on turf and only a slow time on the AW at Wolverhampton, Get Boosting and Show Me Show Me would both need to improve time wise to win this race, James Watt is my 3rd top rated and Economic Cris is my 2nd top rated and they can both be either held up or track the leaders, my top rated is VENTURA FLAME 11/4 but this one is a hold up type but this race might not be run to suit it if the early pace is on the slow side but as it is a 5 furlong dash then I would expect something to change its usual tactics and go from the front but my stake will be kept on the low side because of the lack of known early pace. 

Ventura Flame 11/4 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

HAMILTON 9.00 

This race isn't as competitive as it first looks and I expect a lot of them will be big prices but these 3 (*Alsvinder 9/2 + Toolmaker 4/1 + Nodsasgoodasawink 7/1) are all forecast to be a single figure price and i will lay them if they are of any value, I expect the pace could be set by LANGHOLM 9/4 who is my 3rd top rated and if allowed an easy lead could steal the race from the front and I guess that's the reason why it is the favourite, FIRMDECISIONS 20/1 is my 2nd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and at the price has to be given as an each way punt, with the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim KILCONQUHAR 12/1 moves to top spot and is usually a hold up type and runs on well nearing the finish so another that has to be an each way wager, I will be backing all 3 of them.

*NR 

Kilconquhar 3rd -1pt

Langholm 9/4 4th -1pt 

Firmdecisions 20/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Toolmaker +1pt, Nodsasgoodasawink +1pt

Total on the day +10pts