4:02 Newcastle Racing Tips (6th October)

NEWCASTLE 4.02 

A poor apprentice jockeys race where the early pace could be set by Spartan Fighter who is the only known front running type in the race but it would need to improve time wise to win the race unless it can reproduce its best course and distance rating from 2021 but has been well below that level since then, I'm not convinced that Kat's Bob 15/2 likes this surface so I will lay it if a single figure price, After John 9/4 is only my 4th top rated using a 2022 rating and is usually held up for a late run but looks very poor value at the price, South Dakota Sioux occupies the 3rd top spot and its another that's usually held up for a late run, Claim The Stars comes out 2nd best on my unique speed ratings but that's using a rating recorded at Southwell last year, can be held up or track the leaders but my money will be riding on CARIBBEAN SUNSET 6/1 who is another that's usually held up for a late run and this one recorded its best rating this year which is always a bonus. 

Caribbean Sunset 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet: Kat's Bob -4pts

Total -5pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

The early pace in this race could be set by my 3rd top rated horse in the shape of Another Angel and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but there is at least 5 other runners that like to track the leaders so they should ensure its a true gallop from the off. There is five 3yo’s in this race and I can find a reason to lay every one of them but because of their age they will be kept to low stake lays if they are of value to do so, I've got joint top rated horses in this race LADY CELIA 4/1 who recorded its best rating here last year but has been a few spots below that level so far this year and races as though further would suit it better while ELZAAL 2/1 usually likes to race in the rear or midfield before staying on strongly at the finish and this ones best rating was recorded over this course and distance this year which is usually a positive but to be honest they are both a shorter price than I was expecting and don't really represent value.

Elzaal 7/2 2nd -1pt 

Lady Celia 9/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: He's An Angel +1pt, King Of The Jungle +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -5pts

2:55 Southwell Racing Tips (1st November)

SOUTHWELL 2.55 

A full house of 14 runners where I think the early pace could be set by Mokaman who happens to be my 2nd top rated so should do enough to at least make the frame, its not been in good form lately so not one I could rely on but might be worth an each way punt, I think Primo will be better when racing over further and might be of value to lay in this race, Rose Bandit who usually races in midfield in the early stages of a race is my 3rd top rated so could run on into the frame, my top rated using both course and distance ratings and the other 2 Tapeta courses is TOPLIGHT 5/1 who usually races in midfield or is held up at the back for a late run and the jockey has a reasonable 15% win ratio for the stable on their older horses. 

Toplight 8/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Primo -4pts

Total -5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div I

A ten runner race where the biggest problem is the lack of known front running types so any stakes are automatically lowered, this race might not be run to suit Jackmeister Rudi who might need further to shine, Bayraat is making its handicap debut but will need to improve upon what its shown in its 3 races to date to win this lowly race but never say never, Wee Fat Mac, Griggy, Hilarys Boy and Variety Island are my 5th to 2nd top rated, in order, they are all very closely matched on their speed figures with only 5lbs between them but if CAPTAIN VALLO 8/1 can reproduce its best rating from 2021 at Newcastle it would be winning this race a shade cosily so has to be the one I will be backing. 

Captain Vallo 8/1 1st +8pts

Total +8pts

SOUTHWELL 5.30 Div II

Nine runners in this 2nd division but this times there is some known early paced types with Della Mare is the only one with a rating over today's course and distance so could go well and Big Impact who recorded its best rating at Wolverhampton and is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta rating but not recorded here at Southwell so either or both could make the frame, Gherkin looks better on Polytrack while Tantastic can find this distance too far with a fast early gallop and both could be possible lays in this race. Secret Equity is my 3rd top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but my money will be riding on STARSONG 9/4, this 3yo won last time out and looks to have been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Starsong 9/4 1st +2.25pts

Total +2.25pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 Div I

Ten runners in this class 6 sprint, the 3yo One More Dream won last time out in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve time wise but these youngsters can improve dramatically from race to race, if there is a fast early pace Macho Pride might struggle to stay the distance but with only Rockley Point, my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating, known as a front running type this race might not be run at a fast gallop from the off so I'm not sure I can lay anything with confidence, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated and is another 3yo so it could improve further but I will be backing LADY CELIA 10/1 (EW) in stall 9 who is usually held up for a late run and those drawn middle to high can have an advantage on this course and at the price it has to be an each way punt. 

Lady Celia 10/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 Div II

This 2nd division seems the weaker of the 2 races, there's only Miss Calculation who had led before but that was only on sufferance and may have to do so again here but I don't think this is its favoured surface so may be worth laying along with Kath's Toyboy for the same reasoning. Most of the runners look quite poor and I can only see MY BOY JACK 9/4 as a possible bet, I think it will the favourite to win this race but it hasn't won from 14 runs with 6 of them being on an artificial surface but its rating is quite a few spots above the 2nd placed horses rating and looks well in according to my figures but the lack of a win is a major danger signal.

My Boy Jack 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Kath's Toyboy -4pts,  Miss Calculation +1pt

Total -4pts 

Total on the day -0.75pts

6:10 Windsor Racing Tips (30th May)

WINDSOR 6.10 

A nice competitive class 4 race with 9 runners and the likely pacesetters are Shobiz and or Winnetka, if the former gets an uncontested lead it could at least make the frame and could possibly lead all the way as its my 3rd top rated, as for any lays in this race I have marked down 4 but 3 of them are most likely to be double figure prices which leaves me just Concierge 7/2 as one to lay, its usually held up for a late run but time wise it would need to improve so I doubt it will catch the leaders quickly enough to win the race, Pure Dreamer is my 2nd top rated who is another one that is usually held up for a late run and the same racing tactics are usually deployed by SPRING BLOOM 9/2 who is my top rated using a time recorded this year but the trainers record of 0-29 at this course is a bit off putting so I will also be backing SHOBIZ 6/1 who is my 3rd top rated over all but only 1lb below the 2nd top spot position and has the best trainer 29% with the stables older horses and jockey 19% stats. 

Spring Bloom 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Shobiz 11/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Concierge +1pt 

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 6.40 

A class 3 dash here with 8 runners and 2 known front runners and the race is so competitive its hard to narrow it down to a one horse conclusion, I will be looking to lay Recon Mission 8/1 in this race as its not been in good form lately doesn't seem to like really fast ground and might prefer a longer trip, *FAUSTUS 11/2 and JUST THAT LORD 8/1 are the 2 likely front runners and are my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses so most of the field might not be good enough to get involved in the race and if either gets an easy lead they could lead all the way and hold on for the victory but I do have A SURE WELCOME 7/1 rated higher and this one likes to track the leaders and then run on well nearing the finish, the trainer has a 19% win ratio here with its older horses but its been 42 runners and 327 days since the stable last had a winner which is off-putting else it might well have been my sole selection but in this race I will be looking to dutch all 3 of them. 

*NR

A Sure Welcome 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Just That Lord 8/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Recon Mission +1pt 

Total -1pt 

AYR 7.30 

Down to class 6 for this 9 runner affair with just one known front runner, starting with something to lay I will be looking at Impressor, 5/2 who might need further to show its best form, my 2nd top rated and the likely pacesetter in this race is GOWANBUSTER 6/1 with an easy lead could possibly lead all the way but I do have LADY CELIA 6/1 rated higher and it could catch the leader nearing the finish but I will go with the 2 bets to cover the angles.

Gowanbuster 6/1 3rd -1pt 

Lady Celia 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Impressor +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

4:10 Brighton Racing Tips (29th June)

I HAVE SAID THIS MANY TIMES BEFORE BUT PLEASE MAKE SURE THE GOING IS GOOD OR FIRMER AS MY FIGURES ARE ALL CALCULATED ON THAT SORT OF GROUND AND RAIN IS FORECAST IN SOME AREAS. 

BRIGHTON 4.10 

A 6 runner race with one known front runner among them, Minhaaj may need further to show its best and might be worth laying, It Must Be Faith hasn't won at this distance in the England and usually likes to track the leaders, Newyorkstateofmind is my 4th top rated and like all of my top 4 ratings its time was recorded this year, Wiley Post is in 3rd top spot but doesn't seem to like fast good to firm ground, Shamshon comes out 2nd best using a Windsor time but my top rated is the front running AISH 13/2 who also recorded its time at Windsor and the trainer does well at this course and I'm hoping it can lead all the way.

Aish 1st 7/1 +7pts

Lay bet Minhaaj +1pt

Total +8pts 

HAMILTON 4.50 

Only 7 runners with one front running type but Afandem usually fades at this trip unless allowed a very soft lead and I will lay it if of any value to do so, Gunmetal is my 3rd top rated but doesn't really like good to firm ground, LADY CELIA 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but the jockeys 3lb claim makes it joint top rated along with ROYAL ADVICE 12/1 and with them both being young horses they could both be capable of further improvement so I will be backing them both. 

Abandoned 

HAMILTON 5.20

For a class 6 race this 14 runner affair doesn't look too bad, firstly I will be looking to lay, Stronsay 5/1 who may need further to show its best, and Lord Of The Glen 9/1 I have 3 horses that are versatile with their racing styles which includes leading but they would all need to improve and there is one more natural front runner in the shape of ALSVINDER 7/1 who has good jockey stats and could go well and would be my only selection if it wasn't for the trainers 0-19 record at this course which is a little off-putting, i will look to lay Stronsay who might prefer a longer trip and Lord Of The Glen who has one win from 27 runs on turf, ROSE BANDIT 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times so has to be feared and usually tracks the leaders before staying on at the finish, the top weight HARD SOLUTION 5/1 will be running on at the finish and has both good trainer and jockey stats and the apprentices 5lb claim should help its chances. 

Abandoned 

CHEPSTOW 6.50 

A 17 runner race with just one known front running type in the race, I cannot see anything of value to lay but that might change when the betting is known, I also cannot narrow it down to any less than 4 selections but I will be having one main bet and then back the other 3 to varying degrees to make a profit whichever one wins, Fard is the likely pacesetter and my joint 3rd top rated and the jockey booking looks a positive for the stable, Twice As Likely is the other 3rd top rated and the jockey has a 17% win ratio for the stable and both of them recorded their best speed figures this year, Our Man In Havana is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time from Windsor and is another with good jockey stats and the apprentices 7lb claim could help its cause but most of my money will be riding on WIFF WAFF 9/1 who did its best time at Leicester last year and this race which doesn't look likely to be too fast in the early stages suits its favoured style of racing.

Wiff Waff 14/1 5th -1pt 

Total on the day +7pts