4:55 Chelmsford Racing Tips (14th September)

CHELMSFORD 4.55 

There's 13 runners and 8 of them are 3yo’s which always puts me on the back foot betting wise as any of them can improve without warning, on the very limited amount of data I have got to work with the MOSTALLIM 3/1 has a few spots in hand and being a front running type it could be very hard to catch especially if allowed an easy lead but my stakes will be kept low. 

Mostallim 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.30 

An eight runner race where 3 of them are 3yo’s although in this race none of them look fancied according to the early tissue prices, Princess Shabnam 11/1 is my 3rd top rated and could be the one to set the pace to this race so might be worth an each way interest, on recent times, 2023 then JUSTCALLMEPETE 9/2 comes out as my top rated and it recorded that rating when it won here over this course and distance but I've got *TOLSTOY 5/1 rated a few spots higher but that is using a 2022 rating but this horse also won last time out where this one recorded a decent rating at Brighton and could win this race if able to reproduce its best rating from last year but with that question mark against it I will have to back them both but I do expect them to be the pair that will be at the fore of the betting.

*NR

Justcallmepete 9/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

7:15 Southwell Racing Tips (13th September)

SOUTHWELL 7.15

Last time out Jordan Electrics sprung back to form and could set the pace in this race but this is a better race and I doubt it can lead all the way against this opposition, Antiphon also likes to lead so there should be a fast early pace, Tyger Bay comes out in 4th top spot using a time recorded at Newcastle this year but its best here is quite a few spots lower but could make the frame, Amazonian Dream hasn't run on the AW tracks before but has recorded a fast time at Goodwood on turf so could be a danger if taking to this Tapeta surface, TOLSTOY 11/2 comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded at Wolverhampton it also has a time recorded on the Polytrack surface which would take it to top spot plus its proven to be in form winning last time out on turf 10 days ago a negative is the stall 13 draw, the top weight HIERARCHY 12/1 is dropped in class to run in this race and showed a pointer that it is coming in to form when finishing 4th in its last run, both of the horses I will be backing need a degree of luck with their wide draws but hopefully at least one of them will get a clear run. 

Hierarchy 12/1 4th -1pt  

Tolstoy 15/2 9th 1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 8.15

In this race I can see a trio of front running types so it ought to be a true run race especially over this straight course but I think a middle to low draw can have a slight advantage, Lil Guff hasn't any form on this surface but its best turf rating would give it a chance as it would be my 2nd top rated, Faustus is my 4th top rated in stall 14 and likes to lead so could possibly make the frame, Show Me Show Me comes out in 3rd top spot on my unique ratings and has been drawn in stall 11 so could get sandwiched between two fast starters as there's another front running type housed in stall 8, my money will be riding on the other known front running type in the shape of ANGLE LAND 6/1 who ran well when finishing 2nd last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to go one better here from stall 4 plus it looks like Frankie Dettori is coming here to ride just this one horse so I expect it will be well backed.

Angle Land 6/1 7th -1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

3:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th April)

LINGFIELD 3.15 

A field of 12 for this class 3 sprint where I can see 4 horses that have been known to lead all they are all in my top 4 ratings, looking for something to lay I think Adeb 11/2 will be better when racing over further so might be worth taking on in this race and it looks the only one that might be of value to lay. Emperor Spirit 12/1 is my 4th top rated, its front running type and has the plum stall one draw so has to be on the shortlist of potential winners so maybe an each way punt is the way to go,, Aberama Gold 12/1 in stall 3 comes out in 2nd top spot but that is using a Tapeta rating recorded at Southwell and its best on this Polytrack surface is a good few spots below that level but I expect it will be an outsider in this race, TOLSTOY 7/1 is my 3rd top rated and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and then fade nearing the finish so this one might be worth an each way interest. If WALKING ON CLOUDS 11/2 can repeat its best rating from Southwell this year it would be winning this race with a bit to spare but it has never run on this Polytrack surface before but has made the frame or won in eleven of its twelve races on an artificial surface and if taking to this surface could lead all the way but it is raised in class which means any stakes will be kept low and I will be backing them both hoping I've got the angles covered.

If Walking On Clouds 11/2 7th -1pt 

Tolstoy 7/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Adeb +1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

With 11 runners for this class 2 sprint the early pace will most likely be set by DILIGENT HARRY 4/1 who is my 3rd top rated so could prove hard to catch for most of its opponents and if allowed an easy lead it could go even better so will be carrying some of my money. Annaf 11/4 seems to prefer racing where they go around a bend so the early pace isn't so frantic so might get outpaced here and be worth taking on but anything else that I would look to lay will most likely be too big in price so not represent any value in laying them. If this race was at Wolverhampton then Strong Power 40/1 would be my 2nd top rated and an each way wager but its best at this course has been quite a bit lower so I won't be backing or laying this one, some of my money will be also be riding on MUM'S TIPPLE 9/1 (EW) who is my top rated and likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and if an each way price then all the better.

Giligent Harry 4/1 1st +4pts

Mum's Tipple 9/1 4th -2pt 

Lay bet: Annaf +1pt 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

3:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd March)

LINGFIELD 3.00 

A field of 11 where just Cuban Breeze drawn in the widest stall is known as a front running type but this one might need the run for fitness and would need to improve time wise to win this race. Baldomero 7/2 may need further to show its best and I will look to lay it while Laheg 11/2 seems better on the Tapeta surface so maybe another one to lay. Jack's Point sits in 4th top spot and usually tries to stay on strongly nearing the finish, Counto Otto is 2nd top rated but its last 2 runs have been poor and the jockey is 0-29 when riding for this stable, TOLSTOY 6/1 is my 3rd rated and the trainer has a decent win ratio at this course and is another that will be running on late in this race TYGER BAY 15/2 also has good trainer stats and will also be staying on late in the proceedings but it does look a tricky race so stakes kept to a minimum. 

Tyger Bay 17/2 5th -1pt 

Tolstoy 6/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets: Baldomero +1pt, Laheg +1pt 

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

I'm not sure if can find anything of value to lay in this race plus its a race where I may have to dutch 3 runners in trying to find the winner. Pockley is my 5th top rated just 1lb behind After John in 4th top spot, BALLYARE 17/2 comes out in 3rd top spot but it recorded its best rating on Tapeta at Wolverhampton where the bend means they don't go flat out all the way which might suit it better, ATHOLBLAIR BOY 14/1 is my 2nd top rated courtesy of the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim and she has a 1-6 ratio for the stable but I did have to go back to 2021 to find its best rating but may have encountered slow going in subsequent races on this surface and usually likes to track the leaders, SPARTAN FIGHTER 25/1 hasn't been in the best of form recently but in this race its the only known front running type and if allowed an easy lead could hold enough in reserve to repel any late challengers and the jockey does have a reasonable 16% win ratio when riding the stables older horses. 

Spartan Fighter 28/1 4th -1pt 

Atholblair Boy 28/1 5th -1py 

Ballyare 17/2 Unp -1pt 

Total -3pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

The 3 race of the day where there is only 1 known front running type and in this race its Mew's House but it would need to improve a good few spots time wise to hold on for the win, I expect it will be an outsider in this race but even then it wouldn't tempt me to back it to make the frame. I'm not keen on the chances of Kraken Power 4/1 in this race but I'm not sure I could put it forward to lay either, Ruggles a hold up type is only 1lb behind Nellie French who can be held up or track the leaders in 4th top spot, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Elzaal and Joshua R, the former usually races towards the rear or in midfield in its races before running on at the finish while the latter likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my money will be riding on GUNNERSIDE 4/1 who also likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race.

Gunnerside 4/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (14th January)

LINGFIELD 1.45 

A class 2 sprint with 9 runners and 2 known front running types in Street Kid 9/2 and River Pride 8/1, the former races as though further would suit it better but its best from which comes from Ireland on this Polytrack surface wouldn't be good enough to win this race while the latter hasn't raced over this course and distance before so not sure what to expect from it. Tyger Bay 4/1 has been running well carrying a low weights in handicaps and its mainly been in class 3 races so this step up in class might be too much for it also on recent form both Silkie Wilkie 3/1 and Tadreeb 7/1 are weighted to reverse that previous form in this race. I will be siding with TOLSTOY 7/1 in this race as it has won before at this class of race but this is its first run on this course but the trainer has a decent 18% win ratio at this course and a repeat of its best rating from Chelmsford last year, 2022, would be good enough to see winning this race 

Tolstoy 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 2.55 

Down in class and down in runners for this stakes race and of the 8 runners I have found negatives against half of them, so if any of the bottom 4 in this race are a single figure price they might be of value to lay as most of them, Master Sully 10/3, Secret Stripper and Youllovemewheniwin 4/1 all appear to need further to show their best form while Swooper looks likely to be the big outsider in the field. I have only got 1lb between my 4th to 2nd top rated horses with Hot Hot Hot and Iconicdaay on the same rating with Elf Rising rated one 1lb higher in 2nd top spot but the top weighted horse TOPLIGHT 7/4 is rated a good few spots higher and if reproducing its best course and distance rating from 2022 then i would be winning this race with quite a bit to spare and the jockey has a 25% strike rate when riding the stables older horses.

Toplight 7/4 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Master Sully -3pts, Youlovemewheniwin +1pt

Total -3pts

Total on the day -4pts