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Showing posts with label Ffos Las. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ffos Las. Show all posts

Wednesday, 10 August 2022

2:45 Beverley Racing Tips (11th August)

BEVERLEY 2.45 

In this race I'm not sure what I can find to lay and its maybe best if I leave it until I've seen the betting to see if there's anything of value to lay and it does look likely that I might find one or possibly two to lay, with 3 known front running types in the race it should be a true run affair but I doubt if any of the front runners are capable of leading all the way for the victory, Arnold can produce good speed figures but all of its best form comes in races one level lower than this race, my top 2 rated horses both come from the Paul Midgley stable. In fact the trainer has 3 runners in the race, I'm not so keen on the chances Nibras Again but this ones jockey has the slightly better win ratio for the stable and if its the only one of his trio that's trying it could possibly win this race but if all 3 are trying i think its hard to split VAN GERWEN 13/2 and LATIN FIVE 13/2 the former has the slightly better rating for just 2022 while the latter comes out in top spot overall using a rating it recorded at Nottingham in 2021 so I will be backing them both as I cannot split them. 

Van Gerwen 13/2 4th -1pt 
Latin Five 12/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

FFOS LAS 3.30 

There's 7 runners and 1 known front running type in Bibulous who has only slow times over this distance on good ground and I'm not sure it likes fast good to firm ground, I think Me Next and Celerity will be outsiders in this race and I doubt they can win, Gilt Edge and Dora Penny are my 4th and 3rd top rated horses, Vape comes out in 2nd top spot and could be the one for the forecast but my money will be riding on RABAT 11/2 who won last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up in this race .

Rabat 10/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Sunday, 24 July 2022

2:10 Ayr Racing Tips (25th July)

AYR 2.10 

A class 6 race which doesn't look to have much depth too it, I think the early pace could be set by Earn Your Stripes 5/1 but time wise this one would need to improve a good few spots so might be worth taking on with a lay bet, Maple Jack 9/2 ran on over this distance in a slow run race and might struggle to stay the distance if there's a decent fast paced early gallop, Sir Benedict 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and usually races in midfield before trying to stay on at the finish and could be worth an each way punt, Absolute Dream 7/1 comes out in 2nd top spot and has achieved within 1lb the same rating for last year and this year so it could go well here and might be worth backing each way but my money will be riding on ELLADORA 10/1 (EW) who has good trainer and jockey stats making me think connections are expecting it to go well here and a repeat of its time from Hamilton this year would be good enough to win this race and at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Elladora 10/1 8th -2pts 

Earn Your Stripes +1pt

Total -1pt 

AYR 4.25 

A field of 13 runners with a couple of front runners amongst them, the only lay that I can see that might be of value to do so is Jet Set Go 6/1 who may need further to show its best form but its also a 3yo which I am not keen on laying as they can improve without warning but I think this one was flattered when it finished 2nd last time out in a relatively slow run race and it probably wont be able to pick up the leaders in this race, Red Allure 3/1 and Captain Corcoran 12/1 are my joint 3rd top rated horses and the latter is one of the front runners in the race so if allowed to dictate a slightly slower pace it could do enough to at least make the frame so might be worth an each way interest, the 3yo Jungle Bee 6/1 is my 2nd top rated horse but if BRAZEN BELLE 25/1 (EW) can reproduce the rating it achieved at Ripon earlier this year it would win this race with a little bit too spare but the poor trainer/jockey stats are a little bit off-putting so my stakes will be kept a bit lower than normal but at the price I have to back it and hopefully an each way punt will pay dividends. 

Brazen Belle 25/1 Unp -2pts

Lay bet Jet Set Go +1pt

Total -1pt

WINDSOR 5.20 

This looks like a competitive race with just 5 runners, Airshow might need a bit further to show its best form and may stay on too late to catch the pacesetter but it does come out 2nd best on my figures so could win if the better rated one doesn't reproduce its best, I had to go back to 2020 to find Hey Ho Lets Go best speed rating which would make it my 3rd top rated and only 1lb below the 2nd top spot position, my top rated horse is SPRING BLOOM 11/4 who is also the only known front running type in the race so if allowed to set the pace the others may struggle to peg it back in the closing stages. 

Spring Bloom 11/4 1st +2.75pts

Total +2.75pts

FFOS LAS 6.50 

Not a great race and not much I can say about most of the runners and I was going to leave the race alone until I had all the data written out in my own version of shorthand (nothing like the original) and noticed that my top rated horse *SYMBOL OF HOPE 5/2 is the only known front running type in the race but it is also the favourite and I will be hoping it leads from start and then prove too hard for the others to catch.

*NR

Total on the day +0.75pts

Wednesday, 11 August 2021

2:45 Ffos Las Racing Tips (12th August)

FFOS LAS 2.45 

I am not very familiar with this relatively new flat course but for a class 5 affair this doesn't look a bad race, I will look to lay Wild Flower 4/1 who may need a longer trip if the going is good to firm which is forecast for this meeting but with no known front runners in the race my stakes wont be very big, I'm not sure what to expect from the 3yo Gosnay Gold, I think it might need a longer distance before it shows its best form but I'm not sure enough of my assessment to lay it, the top weight Handytalk has a time from last year at Salisbury that makes it my 2nd top rated and it also has good trainer/jockey stats so it looks like connections are expecting a big run and i might well have a covering bet on it because my top rated CREEK HARBOUR 5/1 has a poor trainer stat with the stable being 0-6 in the last 2 weeks and its last winner was 20 days ago but the jockey booking is also a positive looking one so I hope this will stay on the strongest at the finish. 

Creek Harbour 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Wild Flower +1pt

Total 0pts 

BEVERLEY 3.10 

Ten runners in this dash over 5 furlongs, I cannot see anything of value to lay when looking at the tissue prices but I will no more nearer the off, Arnold might be outclassed in this race but he is one that can record a fast time but usually in a class lower than this race, Thrilla In Manila, Young Tiger, Wades Magic and Mutabaahy all have times that could see them contest for a place in the frame, DARK SHOT 15/2 is one of the 2 known front running types in this field and could prove hard to catch if getting to the front especially if it can reproduce its best time from Leicester last year which make it my top rated so has to be worth a wager but it hasn't been anywhere near that level on my figures so far this year but I can see this one possibly leading all the way if on a going day but just in case its not at its best I will also be backing DEBAWTRY 5/1 who usually stays on strongly over this distance and the jockey booking makes it look as though connections are hopeful of a big run in this race. 

Debawtry 7/1 2nd -1pt 
Dark Shot 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

LINGFIELD 6.08 

A nice looking class 3 sprint with 12 runners and 2 known front running types and both of them are in my top 3 ratings, firstly I will look to lay both Jack The Truth 7/1 and Lady Celia 6/1 who both might find it hard to stay the distance in a fast run early paced race, IRISH ACCLAIM 8/1 comes over from Ireland for this race and the trainer is in good form, 13-78, in the last 2 weeks and could be the one to prosper if the front runners tire nearing the finish, BENEFIT STREET 5/1 won last time on turf at Newmarket and has a time from 2020 that would give a degree of a chance to follow up here also it is well drawn in stall 2 for a front runner and its best time from 2020 puts in the mix, PAPA STOUR 7/1 is my top rated and another possible pacesetter and stall 4 shouldn't be a problem in the make-up of this race but this ones best time was recorded at Chelmsford so I'm hoping it can repeat that time on the same surface but at this course. 

Benefit Street 16/1 4th -1pt
Irish Acclaim 18/1 6th -1pt 
Papa Stour 15/2 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Jack The Truth +1pt, Lady Celia +1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 8.22 

A poor turnout of just 6 for this dash over five furlongs, True Hero could be the one to set the pace and its best time from Newcastle would make it my 2nd top rated but I am of the feeling this isn't its favoured surface also the trainer is 0-8 in the last 2 weeks so it could be one to lay, Jumira Bridge is my 3rd top rated but this one hasn't been showing much recently so its not for me in this race, the top weight Lilklan won for me last time out but that was over 6 furlongs and it isn't as good over this shorter distance, the trainer is 0-5 at this course but the jockey has a very good win ratio when riding for this stable but no jockey can perform miracles if this is the wrong distance for it, I will be taking a punt on STREET PARADE 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and waiting to pounce in the latter stages of the race plus its best time from last year does make it my top rated.

Street Parade 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Monday, 2 August 2021

3:10 Chelmsford Racing Tips (3rd August)

CHELMSFORD 3.10 

My first thoughts is why is Alehandro 4/1 as I think it's better when racing over five furlongs but it is a 3yo so could improve but I'm hoping it's not in this race as I will be looking to lay it, the early pace might be set by Rockesbury and it could do enough to make the frame, I will be backing two in this race, firstly DELEGATE THE LADY 8/1 (EW) who is my top rated using just 2021 times over this course and distance, I admit MAID MILLIE 12/1(EW) hasn't shown much so far this year but has a time from 2020 that would make it my top rated so I'm covering the angles for both this year and overall figures and two each way bets could pay dividends 

Delegate The Lady 8/1 2nd +0.6pts
Maid Millie 12/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bet Alehandro +1pt

Total -0.4pts

FFOS LAS 3.35 

Only 5 runners and no known front running types amongst them, Seneca Chief 8/1 may struggle to stay the distance if there's a good fast early pace, Sweet Pursuit 5/2 hasn't been in form lately and looks poor value, Sarah's Verse 5/2 is my 3rd top rated while I have Gilt Edge 3/1 sitting in 2nd top spot while my money will be riding on STRONG POWER 15/2 who has a time from 2020 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

Strong Power 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHELMSFORD 4.18 

A field of 9 taking part with a couple of known front runners which means it should be a true run race, that's if all the runners are triers, I will look to lay Raaeb 3/1 who firstly looks poor value and I think it will be better when racing over further, of the two front runners I think Lomu may do best being my 2nd top rated on just 2021 course and distance times but that figure is only good enough for 5th top on overall figures but then again it does have a fast time from Lingfield so could do enough to at least make the frame, my money will be riding on JACK THE TRUTH 11/1 who has good trainer/jockey stats and likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Jack The Truth 12/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Raab -3pts 

Total -4pts 

Total on the day -5.4pts

Thursday, 29 August 2019

2:20 Ffos Las Racing Tips (29th August)


FFOS LAS 2.20 

I'm never confident with what stick reading I need for this course but with the current weather I'm going to assume it will be ok, only 6 runners to look at and one of them Celerity is a maiden after 76 runs, the only known frontrunner is Brandy Station but I'm not convinced it really likes g/f ground, Brockley Rise and Tawaafoq both look as though even further would suit them better, my money will be on SPOT LITE 4/1 and this one has good trainer/jockey stats and its only downside is its losing run of 15 but it has been found a good opportunity if its on a going day. 

Spot Lite 4/1 2nd 

CHELMSFORD 2.30

There's 9 runners but only 5 of them have recorded times, I will concentrate on that 5, Chookie Dunedin and Restless Rose are joint 4th best who will need to improve a few pounds to win here, Kraka is my 2nd top-rated using its best time from 2018 and its form this year has been well below that, CREEK HARBOUR 6/1 is my 3rd best but being the only known frontrunner in the race it could be very dangerous if allowed to dictate from the front and I will back it to some degree but I will also be backing DESERT FOX 3/1 who is my top rated and this ones best time came over this c/d this year which is always a positive.

Desert Fox 9/2 1st 
Creek Harbour 7/1 7th

Friday, 23 August 2019

2:50 Ffos Las Ring Tips (23rd August)


My usual warning about checking the going before betting especially Ffos las as I've not got a stick reading for this course but I do put them in brackets to try and be helpful. 

FFOS LAS 2.50 

There should be plenty of early pace in this race with SUNSPRITE 10/1 looking the best of the frontrunners and is my 2nd top-rated so if getting to the front it could prove very hard to catch, DIAMOND DOUGAL 14/1 starts off as my 3rd top-rated but the apprentices 5lb claim moves it to top spot by just 1lb but this one doesn't seem to like really fast ground and the trainers poor record at this course make me think they have plans for the future with this one but never say never and I will have a bet on this one, my original top-rated is MOLLS MEMORY 5/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish, so I will be dutching all 3 in this race. 

Sunsprite 10/1 2nd 
Moll's Memory 5/1 4th 
Diamond Douglas 14/1 5th 

GOODWOOD 5.00 (7.3) 

I hope this race works out as well as it looks on paper, I have got negatives against most of this field apart from my 3rd top-rated Lilbourne Star but my top rated is LETHAL ANGEL 2/1 who looks to have a few spots in hand in this race, I would be a little happier if there were some known pacesetters in the race but as long as the going is good to firm it has every chance of getting back to winning ways. 

Lethal Angel 2/1 3rd 

GOODWOOD 6.35 (7.3)

Only 7 runners and not much early pace looks a problem but if pushed I think maybe Ice Lord will take on the role, Open Wide is my 3rd top-rated but the trainers have a relatively poor record at this course so not for me here, GREEN POWER 10/3 burst back to form last time out at Doncaster and has been found a reasonable chance to follow up here with only the bottom weight SHOW STEALER 7/2 having a faster time so I have to go with backing them both in this race.

Green Power 4/1 1st 
Show Stealer 7/1 3rd