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Showing posts with label Latin Five. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Latin Five. Show all posts

Monday, 29 August 2022

3:00 Chepstow Racing Tips (30th August)

CHEPSTOW 3.00 

Nine runner dash for a class 6 race, I can see 4 that have been known to lead before, Willingly has won its last 2 races but both were relatively slow run races and the official handicapper might have caught up with it but I'm not 100% sure whether to lay it or not, Coronation Cottage my 4th top rated could try to lead and could make the frame if others falter, the 3yo Hattie C comes out in 3rd top spot so could stay on nearing the finish to make the frame so might be worth an each way punt, Shesadabber another front running type comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures but GLAMOROUS FORCE 15/2 hinted at a return to form when finishing 3rd last time out and if ready and able to reproduce its best 2021 rating recorded at Bath it would get back to winning ways. 

Glamorous Force 8/1 1st +8pts

Total +8pts

RIPON 3.40 

I expect the front running Mark's Choice 5/2 will be the favourite to win this race but it only comes out 4th top on my figures so might be worth taking on with a lay bet, Surprise Picture 9/1 is my 3rd top rated who likes to track the leaders and could be worth an each way punt, Bossipop is another possible pacesetter and comes out in 2nd top spot on my figures using its best time from Hamilton last year but my money will be on my top rated horse MAJESKI MAN 5/1 who likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish and did hint at a return to form when finishing 2nd last time out. 

Majeski Man 15/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Mark's Choice -2pts 

Total -3pts

EPSOM 3.50 

Only 7 runners but 4 of them have been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious race, with a fast pace I will look to lay La Roco Del Fuego who can struggle to stay the sixth furlong even though this is a relatively easy fast course, Boogie Time a possible front runner is my 3rd top rated but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Reparted is my 2nd top rated so could do best of those trying to come from off the pace, I will be hoping that BLISSFUL SONG 11/2 has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up its win last time out and the trainer does quite well with a 29% strike rate at this course. 

Blissful Song 11/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CARLISLE 5.15 

Class 5 dash with 12 runners and 4 known front running types, I'm not sure if I can find anything of value to lay but the betting will be the final piece of data to complete the picture, Canaria Prince is my 3rd top rated and a possible pacesetter and it could do enough from the front to make the frame, Mutashaaweq is my 2nd top rated and ran two fast times at Hamilton on good to firm ground but hasn't been anywhere near that form on any other course, my money will be riding on LATIN FIVE 11/1 who won the time before last and finished 5th last time out when not getting a clear run at a critical time and still wasn't beaten far and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race. 

Latin Five 11/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +3pts

Wednesday, 10 August 2022

2:45 Beverley Racing Tips (11th August)

BEVERLEY 2.45 

In this race I'm not sure what I can find to lay and its maybe best if I leave it until I've seen the betting to see if there's anything of value to lay and it does look likely that I might find one or possibly two to lay, with 3 known front running types in the race it should be a true run affair but I doubt if any of the front runners are capable of leading all the way for the victory, Arnold can produce good speed figures but all of its best form comes in races one level lower than this race, my top 2 rated horses both come from the Paul Midgley stable. In fact the trainer has 3 runners in the race, I'm not so keen on the chances Nibras Again but this ones jockey has the slightly better win ratio for the stable and if its the only one of his trio that's trying it could possibly win this race but if all 3 are trying i think its hard to split VAN GERWEN 13/2 and LATIN FIVE 13/2 the former has the slightly better rating for just 2022 while the latter comes out in top spot overall using a rating it recorded at Nottingham in 2021 so I will be backing them both as I cannot split them. 

Van Gerwen 13/2 4th -1pt 
Latin Five 12/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

FFOS LAS 3.30 

There's 7 runners and 1 known front running type in Bibulous who has only slow times over this distance on good ground and I'm not sure it likes fast good to firm ground, I think Me Next and Celerity will be outsiders in this race and I doubt they can win, Gilt Edge and Dora Penny are my 4th and 3rd top rated horses, Vape comes out in 2nd top spot and could be the one for the forecast but my money will be riding on RABAT 11/2 who won last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up in this race .

Rabat 10/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Monday, 25 July 2022

4:10 Goodwood Racing Tips (26th July)

GOODWOOD 4.10 

A big field of 15 with a third of them being known to have led before so it should be a fast and furious dash, price wise I'm not sure if I can find anything of value to lay as there won't be many horses at a single figure price, Equality 13/2 my 4th top rated and Lihou 16/1 my 2nd top rated are possible pacesetters which could see many horses not capable of being involved in the finish, the top weight Atalis Bay 9/1 comes out in 2nd top spot using a time recorded at Haydock last year and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but hasn't shown much so far this year in its 3 runs so could be worth an each way punt if bouncing back to form but I will side with STONE OF DESTINY 10/1 who also needs to bounce back to form which it has done before without giving prior notice and this one's best speed figure rating also comes from Haydock last year but the jockey does have a 19% win ration on the stables older horses. 

Stone Of Destiny 10/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 4.20 

A field of 13 for this class 5 dash, there is a couple of horses that are forecast to be single figure prices that could be worth laying, Phoenix Star 6/1 who might need further to show its best form on good to firm ground and the 3yo Where's Diana 9/1 who would need to improve quite a few spots time wise to win this race, Lost My Sock 8/1 races as though further would suit it better but still comes out in 4th top place on my figures so could be worth an each way punt, Buniann is my 3rd top rated using a 2021 rating but hasn't shown much on turf so far this year, my second top rated horse on a time it recorded this year at Ripon is HIGH SECURITY 8/1 who could be the one to set the pace to this race and if allowed to dominate from the front it could prove a very hard nut to catch and being my top rated on just this years figures it has to carry some of my money but I do have LATIN FIVE 18/1 rated higher but that is using a 2021 speed figure and its best so far this year has been way below that level, I will be backing them both to cover the angles the front runner with good trainer/jockey stats and a rating recorded this year and one that runs on at the finish and is my top rated overall and could win if reproducing its best figure from 2021. 

Latin Five 28/1 1st +28pts + EX £294,60 CFS £199,28
High Security 8/1 2nd  

Total +27pts (Exceptional)

YARMOUTH 4.30 

A field of 12 where a quarter of them have been known to lead before and they fill the top 3 places according to my speed figures, Atyaaf is my 4th top rated so could be the one to benefit if the leaders go off too fast and fade badly nearing the finish, I have got joint 2nd top rated horses, King Crimson who recorded its best time in 2021 and has made the frame in all 3 of its runs this year so could go well again here and might be worth an each way interest and Arzaak who also recorded its best figures last year, I think that PRETTY SHIFTWELL 3/1 could be capable of leading the race and its best time from this year would make it my top rated by 2lbs but has a time from 2021 over this course and distance that is far superior compared to recent figures and which would see it winning this race quite cosily. 

Pretty Shiftwell 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +25pts

Thursday, 16 June 2022

5:47 Ayr Racing Tips (17th June)

AYR 5.47
 

Only 6 runners but no known front runners but I have negatives against 4 of the runners and could be worth laying if of value to do so which leaves me with Run This Way 10/1 who is my 2nd top rated but is usually held up or races in midfield so this race might not be run to suit it while my money will be riding on DANDY'S GOLD 5/2 who can race in midfield or track the leaders so it ought to be able to cover any moves and the jockey has a 29% win ratio for the stable.

Dandy's Gold 5/2 1st +2.5pts

Lay bet Run This Way +1pt 

Total +3.5pts

AYR 7.32 

Nine runners with three horses that could set the pace and maybe of those three Tanasoq could do best if able to reproduce its rating from 2021 at Musselburgh, so not sure if this flatter course will suit it as well, which makes it my joint 2nd top rated. but this one can be ridden in any form of racing tactics so could be worth an each way interest, I will look to lay *Classy Al 7/1 who might prefer a longer distance and Quanah 4/1 who might not like the faster ground, the other joint 2nd top rated horse is Bridgetown and as it recorded that rating at Doncaster it should like this course, my top rated is LATIN FIVE 4/1 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up that win in this race and with a fast pace the race could be run to suit it. 

*NR

Latin Five 7/1 3rd - 1pt 

Lay bet Quanah +1pt 

Total 0pts 

NEWMARKET 8.44 

A 7 runner race where 4 of the runners are 3yo’s and one of those 3yo’s Thakrah could be the one to set the pace to this race but I'm not really sure what it can produce so I couldn't back or lay this one, three runners will I expect be double figure prices so not worth laying but I might take a risk and lay the 3yo Anniversary Belle 7/2 who only recorded a slow speed figure over today's distance on good ground, another 3yo Income is my 2nd top rated but this one has poor trainer stats who is 1-22 at this course, my money will be riding on AMOR DE MI VIDA 10/3 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish although I do think it will the favourite but I cannot find anything the take it on with.

Amor De Mi Vida 10/3 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Anniversary Bell +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +3.5pts

Friday, 27 August 2021

2:45 Newmarket Racing Tips (28th August)

NEWMARKET 2.45 

A 10 runner Listed class race with a couple of front runners, the top weight Summerghand is dropped in class from its recent races and if reproducing its best time from 2020 here over the Rowley course it could win but its been way below that standard time wise so far this year and not worth risking, Adaay To Remember won last time out in a lower class race and might be a progressive type but this is a big jump in class but being a front running type it could go well but not one I would like to rely on, I will be on the side of TABDEED 2/1 who is another dropped in class and comes out as my top rated using its time from Newbury last time out when it finished 2nd and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here, I expect it will be the favourite but I don't mind backing shorter priced horse in races where the prize money is significant. 

Tabdeed 2/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.15 

This is a Listed class race with 4 known front runners amongst the field of 12 and both Tis Marvellous and Justanotherbottle could do well from the front as both are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay Dakota Gold 5/1 if its a single figure price as I think its better over longer distances but with the likely fast pace here it might play to its strengths but maybe too late for it to win this race, Wise Words my 3rd top rated will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish as will be TARBOOSH 14/1 (EW) who comes out top rated using a time from Musselburgh this year and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Tarboosh 14/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Dakota Gold +1pt

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.50 

A fairly big field of 15 runners with a couple of known pacesetters, until I've seen the betting I'm not sure if there's any worthwhile lays amongst them, Duke Of Firenze, Ventura Flame, Not On Your Nellie and Arnold have times that could make them competitive if at their best, I will be going with 2 wagers in this race firstly LATIN FIVE 11/2 who comes out top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures and usually stays on strongly at the business end of its races but my top rated DARK SHOT 11/1 is the only natural looking front runner in the field and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-17 for the last 2 weeks doesn't fill me with confidence so I will go with the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Dark Shot 14/1 4th -1pt 
Latin Five 8/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

WINDSOR 4.20 

A poor turnout of just 7 runners but there is a couple of front running types so it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Libertine Belle 5/1 who might need further to show its best, as for the winner I have to admit its a race where i will have to go with dutching 3 runners, LETHAL BLAST 7/2 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its only 2lb below GLAMOROUS BREEZE 3/1 on just 2021 times but the top weight SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated by 3lbs so its close between all 3 of them for various reasons and I cannot split them 

Second Collections 6/1 1st +6pts 
Glamorous Breeze 3/1 2nd -1pt 
Lethal Blast 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Libertine Belle +1pt

Total +5pts

NEWMARKET 5.35 

If this race had any known front running types it would be a cracking race but the lack of known early pace already means my stakes will be kept low, James Watt, Secretinthepark and Nibras Again are all rated within a 1lb of each other in 3rd to 5th top rated so could battle it out to make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Han Solo Berger but my top rated is the top weight SOUL SEEKER 8/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and I do like it when a horse comes out top rated carrying higher weight against lesser opponents. 

Soul Seeker 8/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 6.45 

With nearly half the field being either 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts this race is hard to analyse but I do think the connections of HAIL SEZER 6/1 have found their horse a good opportunity to follow up from the race it won last time out at Doncaster and recorded a fast time the race before at Carlisle when finishing 2nd which puts it at the top of my speed figures list but the trainers 0-4 for the last 2 weeks means my stakes will be kept low. 

Hail Sezer 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 7.15 

I was going to leave this race alone with once again half the field being 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts but when I checked the time recorded by ABSOLUTE DREAM 4/1 when it won over this course and distance 2 runs ago I was surprised to see it was well above what I would normally expect from a class 6 race, its last race was over 7 furlongs so can be ignored and is quickly dropped back to its winning distance and should confirm the form of its course and distance win over Shes A Deva.

Absolute Dream 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

Monday, 26 July 2021

2:40 Beverley Racing Tips (27th July)

BEVERLEY 2.40 

A 9 runner race where I can only find Show Yourself 3/1 to have led before but it is held by Ava Go Joe on today's revised terms where the former won by half a length getting 10lbs from the runner-up but today there is only 6lbs between them with again the winner being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice but both would need to improve time wise against some of these but being 3yo’s they could still have enough improvement within them, I will look to lay Impressor if its a single figure price as I don't think it will appreciate the going if its good to firm, Ventura Flame 9/1 is my 3rd top rated using a time recorded this year at Hamilton and its the sort of horse that I think will be able to repeat its best and it could be a nice each way bet, the bottom weight Mutabaahy 12/1 is my 2nd top rated on a time when it won at Ripon this year but the one for me in this race is LATIN FIVE 7/1 as its my top rated using a time it recorded at Nottingham earlier this year and the jockey has a reasonable strike rate on the stables older horses.

Latin Five 12/1 6th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

Sunday, 13 June 2021

6:50 Nottingham Racing Tips (14th June)

NOTTINGHAM 6.50 

LATIN FIVE 8/1 likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish and races as though further might help its cause but this race could be run to suit it. 

SALUTI 8/1 usually tracks the leaders and then stays on at the finish and comes out 3rd best on my speed figures so could make the frame. 

NIBRAS AGAIN 12/1 hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 and usually stays on at the business end of a race but the jockeys 0-8 makes me think this race isn't its target. 

BLAZING HOT 10/1 is one of the two known front runners in the race and comes out 2nd best on my figures and could be hard to catch if getting an easy lead but I doubt that will happen but could make frame so maybe value to do as an each way punt. 

EEH BAH GUM 3/1 is the other one of the two known front running types in the race and its best time from 2019 would make it my 3rd top rated so could make the frame but its not an each way price. 

HELVETIAN 8/1 this one looks as though a longer trip would help its cause and would need to improve time wise to win this race. 

BIRKENHEAD 12/1 is a hold up type of horse but it may struggle to catch the leaders in this race and isn't in my top 4 speed ratings. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER 7/2 the trainer has a decent 22% win ratio here with their older horses but this one might be better over a longer distance and one I will look to lay at the price. 

MAY THE SIXTH 20/1 hasn't any turf form to its name and it would need to improve on its best AW time which came at this distance at Wolverhampton. 

CONCLUSION: Blazing Hot and/or Eeh Bah Gum look the likely pacesetters and the former is my 2nd top rated so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I think they could set this race up form the top weight. LATIN FIVE 8/1 who likes a fast pace to aim at and its best time was recorded this year so is my top rated on both recent and overall speed figures. 

Latin Five 9/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

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WINDSOR 7.30 

EDRAAK 3/1 comes out 4th top rated on my figures and is usually held up in the rear or in midfield to come with a late run and its best time did come from this year but isn't an each way price. 

TINTO 16/1 is usually held up for a late run and is my 2nd top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim makes it very tight between my top 2 ratings and looks worth an each way punt. 

OPEN WIDE 11/1 is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame if an each way price. 

IVANTHEENGINE 11/2 has poor recent form to its name in its only 2 races this year and its best time which was at Wolverhampton wouldn't win this race so maybe worth laying if a single figure price.

INDIAN CREEK 4/1 usually likes to race in the midfield in its races and time wise it would need to improve to win this race and may not catch the leaders quickly enough.

A SURE WELCOME 7/2 I think this is the one that will set the pace in this race and is my top rated so ought to prove very hard to catch. 

CONCIERGE 10/1 has only slow times from its recent races and may be a better prospect when tried over further than today's 6 furlongs. 

HAN SOLO BERGER 11/1 has only slow times over this distance mainly due to the fact it looks better when tried over a shorter distance. 

CONCLUSION: Only the one known front runner so A SURE WELCOME 7/2 could go well from the front if allowed an easy lead and will be carrying some of my money but to cover the angles I will also be backing TINTO 16/1 who is usually held up for a late run and there is very little between them on the clock and looks worth having a small each way bet because it looks value at the price.

Tinto 16/1 2nd -1pt 
A Sure Welcome 7/2 3rd -1pt

Total on the day -3pts